Lab
Every strategy we test gets a pre-registered gate before it runs. If it passes, it moves toward the next gate. If it fails, the postmortem stays public — and the gate is frozen, so we cannot quietly rewrite the rules.
This page is the full record: every failure, every survivor, every contributor.
S055FORWARD · PAPER
Market-neutral reversion + momentum — κ<60 exit-patience (S-038 successor)
IdeaQuick-screenWalk-forwardForward paperLive
Equity
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
1.1
Max DD
−23%
CVaR 5%
—
Horizon
19.7y
Ann return
+9%
S048FORWARD · PAPER
Return stacking — T-bills, a market-neutral book and a gated sector sleeve
IdeaConstruction studyForward paperLive
Equity
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
1.36
Max DD
−15.9%
CVaR 5%
—
Horizon
20y
Ann return
+10.8%
A construction study, not an edge. Forward paper since 2026-09-25 — tracking only.
S038FORWARD · PAPER
Market-neutral reversion + momentum, clean universe
IdeaQuick-screenWalk-forwardForward paperLive
Equity
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
1.1
Max DD
−24%
CVaR 5%
−3.9%
Horizon
19.6y
Ann return
+9%
S037FORWARD · PAPER
Market-neutral mean-reversion + momentum (70/30)
IdeaQuick-screenWalk-forwardForward paperLive
Equity
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
1.1
Max DD
−24%
CVaR 5%
−3.9%
Horizon
19.6y
Ann return
+9%
S026PASSED · STAGE 3
SPX 0DTE iron condor, managed to a profit target
IdeaDesign & priorsForward paperLive
Equity
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
−0.2
Max DD
−47%
CVaR 5%
—
Horizon
3.9y
Ann return
−3%
Hold-to-settle backtest on a modeled delta; the managed exit is what forward paper tracks.
S024FORWARD · PAPER
Selling naked earnings straddles in mid-caps
IdeaDesign & priorsForward paperLive
Charts pending — trade-level data not wired yet
Sharpe · ann
—
Max DD
—
CVaR 5%
—
Horizon
—
Ann return
—
S023QUEUED S4
Capturing the overnight-only return in US equities
IdeaQuick-screenWalk-forwardTrade simLive
Equity
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
0.52
Max DD
−32%
CVaR 5%
—
Horizon
21.4y
Ann return
+6%
S015FORWARD · PAPER
Selling over-priced earnings straddles in mid-caps
IdeaDesign & priorsForward paperLive
Equity
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
−0.8
Max DD
−4%
CVaR 5%
—
Horizon
0.1y
Ann return
—
Forward paper, interim — 23 events over four weeks. No result claimed.
S012PASSED · STAGE 3
Put-selling on dips, tighter vol-regime gate
IdeaDesign & priorsForward paperLive
Equity (proxy)
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
2.0
Max DD
−2%
CVaR 5%
−1.2%
Horizon
11.2y
Ann return
+4%
Proxy premium — model under-prices tail risk, so Sharpe is optimistic.
S011PASSED · STAGE 3
Put-selling on dips, sized by downside risk
IdeaDesign & priorsForward paperLive
Equity (proxy)
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
1.4
Max DD
−18%
CVaR 5%
−4.4%
Horizon
11.4y
Ann return
+8%
Proxy premium — model under-prices tail risk, so Sharpe is optimistic.