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S032 · forward-paper · real chains
Buy-write — forward-paper tracking (DIA Δ30 + QQQ Δ30)
buy-write-rsi2-etf-v1
10 completed
3 open
horizon 10/30 trades · 4.4/12 months
forward paper · 2026-07-17 00:00:00 → 2026-10-30 00:00:00
Running record — per-trade Sortino, buy-write vs matched naked long
| Cell | n | Sortino bw/nk | Mean bw | Mean nk | Win | Worst | Gate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DIA-d30 | 6 | -0.16 / -0.38 | -0.27% | -0.83% | 50% | -3.20% | clears |
| QQQ-d30 | 4 | — / — | +2.42% | +2.00% | 100% | +1.05% | below |
Open positions — held to expiry
| Signal | Cell | ETF entry | Strike | Δ | IV | Premium | Expiry |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 00:00:00 | DIA-d30 | 522.56 | 531.00 | 0.31 | 13.97% | 3.10 | 2026-11-20 00:00:00 |
| 2026-10-30 00:00:00 | QQQ-d30 | 695.10 | 716.00 | 0.30 | 24.27% | 7.03 | 2026-11-20 00:00:00 |
| 2026-10-14 00:00:00 | QQQ-d30 | 715.93 | 743.00 | 0.30 | 20.50% | 8.49 | 2026-11-20 00:00:00 |
Completed trades — buy-write vs matched naked long
| Signal | Cell | ETF entry→exit | Buy-write | Naked long |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 00:00:00 | DIA-d30 called | 511.31 → 518.32 | +1.49% | +1.07% |
| 2026-09-16 00:00:00 | DIA-d30 | 515.00 → 518.33 | +1.02% | +0.35% |
| 2026-09-10 00:00:00 | DIA-d30 | 524.43 → 518.34 | -0.79% | -1.46% |
| 2026-09-10 00:00:00 | QQQ-d30 | 706.00 → 708.58 | +1.05% | +0.06% |
| 2026-09-01 00:00:00 | DIA-d30 | 535.03 → 518.34 | -2.63% | -3.42% |
| 2026-08-18 00:00:00 | QQQ-d30 | 712.32 → 719.62 | +1.79% | +0.72% |
| 2026-08-17 00:00:00 | DIA-d30 | 535.17 → 516.29 | -3.20% | -3.83% |
| 2026-07-24 00:00:00 | QQQ-d30 called | 670.09 → 713.83 | +4.65% | +6.23% |
| 2026-07-17 00:00:00 | DIA-d30 called | 519.06 → 532.71 | +2.48% | +2.33% |
| 2026-07-17 00:00:00 | QQQ-d30 | 704.71 → 713.80 | +2.19% | +0.99% |
Forward-paper, not live. Real Tastytrade chains — real IV, skew, and a conservative bid fill on the written call — replace the flat-ATM-IV assumption of the modelled screen (which overstated the premium). The question: does the real premium still clear the matched naked long the way the model claimed? Gate inherits the S032 spec §9 (per-trade Sortino > matched naked long, tail-aware). Directional until the promotion horizon — frozen at ≥ 30 completed trades or 12 months, whichever first (10/30 trades · 4.4/12 months); nothing is promoted or called live before then. Low-alpha by design, risk-reducing, not tail-protected.